A new report on how to communicate confidence and uncertainty.

This report details the strategies for communicating confidence and uncertainty developed by Work Package 33 in collaboration with the University of Cantabria. The development of these strategies was informed by our earlier  review of existing approach to  communicating uncertainty  (D33.2) and user needs survey (D33.1): both of which demonstrated that user’s vary in their ability to use statistical and technical information, and that forecast skill is not always communicated to users in a way that is easily interpreted.  It was therefore our goal to identify and develop a portfolio of formats for communicating likelihood (uncertainty) and skill (confidence) to users with varying levels of expertise. For expert users these formats include tercile plots, bubble plots (maps) incorporating measures of likelihood and skill, and measures of spread. For those without high statistical expertise we suggest formats that use simple categories and text to describe skill.